Thursday, September 3, 2020

477. Wall Street Is Not Main Street


BROWDERBOOKS

I have often commented on the industry that thrives by selling products and services to aspiring writers.  Skeptical as I can be, I'm not immune to their appeal.  Recently I bought a roll of 100 gold seals proclaiming NOTABLE BOOK, BlueInk Review.  BlueInk assured me that I was one of the lucky few -- 5 percent of their authors -- who qualify for this offer.  It was their favorable review of New Yorkers that made it possible.  The cost of the seals?  $25.00, plus shipping $9.95 (those seals must weigh a lot), for a total of $34.95.  

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So why have I shelled out this sum for a bunch of seals?  Because exhibiting at book fairs taught me that any little gimmick like this makes a book more attractive to attendees.  They may never have heard of BlueInk Review,  but that little gold seal is impressive.  Of course, with the pandemic eliminating book fairs for the moment, those seals will only adorn the books (currently 12) in my apartment.  But someday, hopefully, those books will appear at a book release party or a fair, or be displayed in my living room, if I have guests.  Someday...  But oh, how those little gold seals catch the eye!  

One final thought:  Where on the cover will I put the seal?  It won't be easy finding a spot that won't interfere with my name, the title, or the illustration.  I hadn't thought about this until now.  Hmm...


               Wall Street Is Not Main Street


"Wall Street is not Main Street."  So spoke Mr. Thomas DiNapoli in a recent radio interview.  And who is Mr. DiNapoli, that I should quote him here?  He is the New York State Comptroller, an elected office he has held since 2007.  I met him briefly once at the greenmarket, and delighted him by saying that, in the opinion of at least one voter -- me --  his elected office, upstaged by the governor and lieutenant governor in elections, is highly significant.  He is the state's chief fiscal officer, responsible for seeing that the state and local governments use taxpayers' money --  our "donations" -- effectively.  A watchdog, necessary because who really trusts the government -- especially our dear state government up in the cesspool that is Albany -- to do things right?  (If I deplore Congress as a swamp, I have always described our state government in Albany as a cesspool, and am still of this opinion.) So what prompted Mr. DiNapoli's comment on Wall Street?

The stock market hit a new all-time high in February and then, as COVID-19 assailed the economy, it plummeted to a low in March, and since then has recovered and is now again hitting all-time highs.  Certainly this was a bust followed by a boom, and it all happened in record time; instead of taking months or even years, the plunge and recovery were scrunched up into one single month.  Unprecedented.  

So if the market is sky high, isn't that good?  For investors, yes.  For stockholders of Apple (the stock I love to love), Google, Facebook, Microsoft, and a few other tech biggies, the leaders in this rally, things are peachy keen.  But meanwhile vast numbers of people are out of work and desperate financially, small businesses are failing, and the general economy is devastated.  So as Mr. DiNapoli observed, Wall Street is not Main Street -- far from it.

Long ago in a pre-pandemic age I published post #410, "High Buildings, High Markets, High Debt.  How Soon the Bust?"  The date was May 26, 2019.  I commented on the megatowers surging skyward all over the city, and wondered if and when those skinny colossi -- or at least the ruthless optimism that inspired them -- might collapse, taking the stock market with it.  My premise: anything that goes up up up has to come down down down, the big question being when? And one might add, why and how?  And today the big question is: Has it happened already?  The answer: it would seem so, yes.

Even before the pandemic struck, developers in Long Island City and Greenpoint, two of the busiest real estate markets outside of Manhattan, were troubled by a softening market.  As of early July of this year, nearly 60 percent of the condos completed in Long Island City remained unsold.  

As for Manhattan, the pandemic brought a sharp drop in sales as well.  In June of this year a full-floor condominium on the 88th floor of One57, a 90-story tower at 157 West 57th Street on what has come to be called "billionaires' row," was sold to a Chinese conglomerate for $28 million, a 41 percent discount from the original purchase price.  Which is nice for Chinese conglomerates and foreign billionaires desiring a little pied-à-terre in Manhattan, but not too relevant for most of us.

More to the point: people are fleeing Manhattan, leaving a lot of apartments unoccupied, bringing rents down 10 or 12 percent, maybe more.  For renters, this is good news, if they want Manhattan.  But lots of New York fugitives are now paying extraordinary sums for houses in the suburbs, sometimes even buying them unseen.  So for now New York, one of the priciest real estate markets in the country, is beginning to look like a bargain -- a pricey bargain, but a bargain nonetheless; all is relative.  Whether this will continue is anyone's guess.  Ask the virus.

So the bust did indeed come, but in a way no one predicted.  Who could have anticipated a pandemic? And even if the stock market is surging to new all-time highs, Main Street -- meaning most people -- is suffering.  And that suffering may last a long, long time.

On this cheery note, I'll conclude.  What goes up up up does indeed come down down down, but in record time it can go back up up up again.  There's something about this that doesn't feel quite right, but that's how it is for now.  Tomorrow, who knows?  Meanwhile, just talking about it makes my head a bit dizzy.


Coming soon:  American humor.  Let's have a laugh.

©  2020  Clifford Browder






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